Election Night Update #1: THE EXIT POLL (10PM)

BREAKING: Labour are projected to form the next government, with a total of 410 seats and a 170 seat majority. After four years leading the opposition Starmer is set to be just the fourth Labour leader in history to convert the party into government. The result is set to be Labour’s best since at least 1997. Political reality has just shifted, possibly for a generation. 


A bombshell? Well kind of. The exit poll has illustrated what we thought heading into the night: primarily the large Labour landslide, but secondly a weakened Conservative party, with their projection of 131 seats (their worst result since 1834). The Reform challenge seems to be the story of the night, projected to gain 13 seats. Simultaneously, the possibility of a Lib Dem charge to opposition now looks unlikely, but the party looks set for a very good night with 61 predicted seats

However, this is certainly not the end of the intrigue. The smaller Labour vote (compared to what we expected) and higher Reform vote, as James Kanagsooriam pointed out last night, possibly brings into play several three-way marginal seats Labour-Conservative-Reform contests. The unpredictability of these could mean the exit poll may vary in accuracy. Such a large swing is almost unprecedented making it even harder to predict. Tonight is well worth a watch - things may change!

The SNP are set for a terrible night in Scotland, retaining just 10 of the seats which is worse than predicted – though take this with a pinch of salt due to the lack of Scottish data in the exit poll. The final story of the night is the Green’s picking up Bristol Central to take their total to 2.

Over the night we’ll continue to update you on the first few seats to announce the result, while a larger update in around two hours of the overall early picture.