Election Night Update #2: EARLY RESULTS - REFORM VS LAB? (3AM)

AS IT STANDS: There is a current stand-off between those backing the exit poll and those backing previous predictions under MRP models. The big question is the Reform and Labour vote – and particularly the interplay between the two. There is cause for concern, albeit early, that it could be overplaying the Reform vote – but again this is just an early take.

The first two declarations, Houghton & Sunderland South and Blyth & Ashington, saw comfortable majorities for Labour with Reform surging to second in both – although this was in line with what was predicted. This trend was largely repeated in the North East. 

While Reform celebrated their first electoral gain with Ashfield (Lee Anderson), they failed to win either Barnsley seat, Castle Point or Hartlepool which were all part of Reform’s 13 seat total in the exit poll. Unless there are some shocks in southern seats, it's unlikely they will reach that total. 

Notable Labour gains were in Swindon South, defeating the first big Tory scalp of the night of Robert Buckland. Meanwhile, Telford recorded the largest ever Tory to Labour swing total at an election with a massive 24.2%. Labour have begun a strong charge in Scotland, gaining Kilmarnock & Loudon with a 25 point gain. The Lib Dems have claimed to have won at least 47 seats, showing strong performances in Harrogate to begin what could be an impressive night.

The mood of the night now shifts to whether the Tories can defend their heartlands, whether Laboru can come through the middle in more seats than predicted and their overall progress in Scotland. Reform will look to win at least Clacton and Boston.