Election Night Update #3: BIG NAMES, BIG DAY, BIG CHANGE (5AM)
THE BIG NAMES: The last few hours have been defined by the big names and several shocks. Firstly, Nigel Farage won his seat of Clacton with an 8000 majority, after his 8th time of trying. His message was that ‘he's coming for Labour votes’ in 2029. Reform picked up the pace by winning Boston & Skegness with Richard Tice and also Great Yarmouth, Brandon Lewis’ old seat. It's not the total expected, but it's still important progress for the party and the populist right. Their presence will create a headache for all parties in the next parliament, particularly the Conservatives.
Talking of the Conservatives, Grant Shapps became the largest scalp of the evening as the sitting Defence Secretary lost his seat of Welwyn Hatfield on a 10.9k majority. The fourth cabinet minister, Simon Heart (chief Whip) also lost during this period to Plaid Cymru with a 19 point decrease in his vote. The fifth was Gillian Keegan, Education Secretary, to the Liberal Democrats. The sixth was Penny Modaunt by just 780 votes and then the seventh Johnny Mercer and then the eighth of Lucy Frazer.
In fact, there were so many big name Tory scalps in this period I almost lost track, including Therese Coffey who lost a 20k majority in Suffolk Coastal (and then also Jacob Rees-Mogg!). In rare bright spots for the Tories Kemi Badenoch retained her seat with a 2,600 majority, while Suella Braverman also kept her seat – two significant developments for the future leadership of the Tory party. Jeremy Hunt also scraped home with 800 votes, a big win for the One Nation faction of the party.
For Labour the night became a bit trickier (albeit still successful) one with the loss of two shadow cabinet ministers: first with Jonathan Ashworth in a shock defeat to an Independent in Leicester South and Thangam debbonaire in a widely expected defeat in Bristol Central to the Greens but also a third shock Green seat in Herefordshire North. Jeremy Corbyn has also retained his seat against the odds with a 7,400 majority. Faiza Shaheen, running as an independent after being purged, also denied a Labour victory against ex-Tory leader Ian Duncan Smith. There were a further two Independent gains in Blackburn and Batley. The victories, and obstructions, of left leaning independents and Greens are an important warning shot for Labour’s efficient but fragmenting coalition – something reflected in most of the insurgent flanks of the left wing. As I argued in my piece on Labour’s purges, they will need to govern with a broader front if they are to retain a healthy majority in 2029.
In better news for Labour, it seems the SNP might be doing even worse than the exit poll predicts, with the road to just 10 seats becoming a struggle.
The overall picture of this election is beginning to become clear: a historic rejection of the Conservative party (their worst since their creation in 1834). In reverse, a staggering victory for a Labour party who, only five years ago, were reeling from their worst defeat since 1931. But this election has also revealed a radicalising and fragmenting party system, with pressures on all wings of the ‘traditional’ broadchurch parties. For Starmer, the first step is over – but the harder part of governing now begins.