Election Night Update #4 FINAL (INITIAL) THOUGHTS (3PM)

Don't worry this is THE LAST ELECTION UPDATE !

BEFORE YOU UNSUBSCRIBE after TPI’s election night spam I just want to reassure you this is our LAST quickfire post! From now on we’ll resume our weekly/ bi-weekly release schedule with longer, more wide-view pieces on British politics. There is certainly a lot to unpack in such a complex result, so subscribe to keep up to date.

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Without completing a full post-mortem of the election immediately there are some early thoughts and conclusions to take from this election (and to share with your mates to make you the most clued-up political nerd around the table).

Firstly, Labour gained 211 seats with just a 1.6% increase in the vote. Their landslide majority, and the overall result, is the most ‘disproportionate’ in modern electoral history, with a Gallagher index score of 24.

The Conservative defeat is their worst in the party's history (since 1834), witnessing the largest vote share drop (-20%) ever recorded in British political history. This election saw the most Cabinet minister defeated, ever, as well as party Grandees – including ex prime minister Liz Truss. If people are wondering how the hell this happened, may I suggest a certain book (wink, wink).

The Lib Dems have achieved their best performance since 1923 – harking back to a time when they were exiting government after winning World War 1 as the Liberal party, led by legendary prime minister David Lloyd George. Their impressive 71 total may yet rise to 72. 

Reform and the Greens strong performance, both achieving 4 seats and 14% and almost 7% respectively, potentially ushers in a new era of multi-party contests, as seen in the 1920s. In fact, this was the first time since 1918 that the major two parties combined vote failed to get over 60% of the vote. For an electoral system, First Past the Post, which inevitably fails to cater for more than two parties, this is a dangerous yet intriguing proposition. Opportunities abound for those in politics who want to take either an insurgent or broachurch route, which is a rarity in politics.  

So, while this election is historic for its grand fragmentation and dynamic change in government it's unlikely much will change with the voting system. Instead, the main two parties will search for ways to establish their two-party dominance. Starmer’s government will have to act decisively, and quickly, if it wants to win another term. The tone he struck on the doorsteps of Number 10 will have touched many: ‘. But at this point words are becoming more and more meaningless. Unless action is taken their voter coalition could crumble like a sandcastle.

As I noted in my series on Labour’s governing icebergs, this is exactly what happened to the first Labour government 100 years in 1924 – the country on its knees economically and the nation lacking trust in the party resulted in governing inaction triumphing over action, destroying Labour in a single term. However, one side note to this is that the Lib Dems new heightened position in parliament makes a possible coalition with Labour a possibility after the next election, the same goes for a not so insignificant Green party. It would be foolish to think the progressive parties will relinquish power to the Tories so easily again, as they did 2010.

For the Tories, a whole host of soul searching begins. I’d argue the lower Labour vote share will mislead the Tories and possibly prevent a full scale reinvention. Many are already arguing for a ‘tack to the right’ in order to reunite with the populist right of Reform. But what this misses, as Robert Colville notes, is that even if you combine the Reform-Tory vote in every battleground seat, they would only reach 287 seats – well short of a majority. In reality you could expect a natural 25% regaining rate of seats from the right-wing vote split, but this only brings them to just 166 – still a 1997 wipeout.

And this is the painful conundrum the Tory party now has: the Lib Dems gained 33 seats off them. While these seats are hardly left-wing, they are more centrist leaning and certainly more socially liberal. A unite the right strategy would struggle to make inroads into these key areas. Their base has fundamentally split, and it will take a serious amount of soul searching to create a new viable coalition. The future, at least for now, is red. For how long, and to what end, are now the deeper but fascinating questions.

Further Reading:

Our three-part series on what Labour must avoid in order to succeed in government:

The Conservative Effect, 2010-24: 14 Wasted Years? By Anthony Seldon and Tom Egerton

John Burn-Murdoch on Labour’s ‘coalition of contradictions’: https://www.ft.com/content/74108618-1638-421a-9a08-dc3073c277fa

Paula Surridge’s election summary on the ‘creaking party system’
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jul/05/labour-wins-big-uk-electoral-system-creaking

James Kanagasooriam on the ‘sandcastle theory’ behind Labour’s victory
https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/labour-winning-coalition-political-sandcastle-ukip-keir-starmer-mlkq8zdbp

Keir Starmer’s first speech in front of No.10 – history in the making:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/videos/c4ngpd4x8d5o