GE Updates #2: A TikTok Election?
Analysis of the role of TikTok in the election
There have already been about twenty articles written, all smartly claiming that this is the ‘first TikTok election’. Almost all these articles have been written by an older generation who don’t understand the platform nor interact with it. It's not surprising that many argue that while the numbers seem important, they don’t think the novelty of the platform will have any overall impact on the election. Instead, this piece will examine how TikTok actually works from a social / cultural perspective and why it could be highly significant for the election result. Importantly, this is written from the perspective of the demographic who gets it – the young.
The Powerful Novelty
TikTok at its core is a highly addictive and effective social media algorithm which has dictated the social media narrative for those under 30 (and possibly older) for the last 3-5 years with hyper-short form videos, ranging from (on average) 10 seconds to a minute. Its brilliance is its speed and catchiness – either in the content you consume or its ability to control your attention with yet another video within seconds. Speed and algorithmic accuracy are its superpowers. In an age of supposedly lessening attention spans, which the young are particularly susceptible to, it isn’t difficult to understand how TikTok has become the most used platform for those under 30: with 83% of 16-24 in the UK using it, compared to 2% of over-65s.
But this is where most people’s understanding of TikTok ends. The real power of TikTok is what one could call its meta ability to completely dictate the social-cultural narrative. What the hell does that mean? Essentially TikTok decides what meme (digital joke) is the most popular, what song is the most listened to and what new trend will dominate the next few weeks. This has a twofold effect:
Firstly, because TikTok decides the original online trend, this trend will naturally diffuse onto all other social media platforms – particularly into TikTok ‘lite’ sections of other platforms designed to mimic TikTok: whether Instagram Reels, Youtube Shorts, Snapchat Stores or Facebook Shorts. Not only this, but the trends which TikTok sets also permeate into the entirety of one’s social media feed – not just the short video sections. Thus, in one regard it has a very strong influence over most people’s feeds, especially the young who are most aligned to the TikTok algorithm, even if you don’t even use TikTok. This is an incredibly powerful aspect of the app many don’t quite grasp.
Secondly, TikTok has an incredible non-social media influence on the young. This element is the most misunderstood by the older generations. What everyone sees on TikTok will quite literally dominate social interactions among young people. Whether it's a meme everyone’s seen which is funny – and everyone tries to mimic, a piece of gossip trending or a song (which could be from any genre) that is always played first on the playlist. Whatever it is, TikTok is always present at social gatherings – even if this is in a subconscious, non-pervasive sense. So even if you’re a young person who doesn't use TikTok, the fact that many of your friends or people you meet your age have done so, you are immediately aware of the trends being shared through conversation. This is significant because most young people are both unlikely to vote, and unlikely to talk about politics (unless you’re that annoying political mate). If TikTok can influence natural social conversation with a more political edge during an election campaign, you are likely to reach people disinterested in politics. .
The hardest bit about this is the anecdotal nature – there is no real bit of data to illustrate how this social effect works, but trust me – it does. And it's especially pervasive for those, such as myself, who don’t use TikTok much. On average, most people under 30 spend at least an hour on the platform everyday. Imagine this was the traditional newspaper which 50-100 years ago many would read at the breakfast table or on a commute? What everyone reads in the morning would continue to dominate their conversations and framing of the day ahead. Now replace the passive element of reading with an hour of visualisation and listening on TikTok. This is how it diffuses into the social sphere – by becoming the most significant passive source of information for the young.
Election Tok
But what does this mean for the election?! Well the first important point to make is: we really do not know. How its algorithm interacts with younger voters, and its overall pressures on voting intention or turnout is unknown – and this is exactly because of the powerful novelty TikTok has, which pre-2019 social media just didn't. The platform, if anything, is defined by its raucous insouciance.
With that said, there are some very obvious conclusions we can already make. Labour is essentially dominating the TikTok feed. Sunak’s National Service announcement for 18-year olds has basically ignited Labour’s TikTok (and social media) for two weeks. By memeing Sunak’s announcement, Labour have racked up significant views, whether on a Bob Mortimer Would I lie to you meme (2.5m), Lord Farquaard’s Shrek meme ‘some of you may die’ (2m+) or Cilla Black’s ‘surprise surprise’ (4.8M). The fact that this attack then continued into Sunak’s terrible football skills (1.5m) is a worrying trend for the Tories. Dominating TikTok trends with attack lines will give Labour a presence on all social media, as well as in the social interactions of younger voters.
And this is where most articles have got it completely wrong about TikTok. They purely examine the numbers and usually get the wrong conclusion as a result. For instance, much attention was given to Farage’s climbing to 600k followers on TikTok faster than all the other parties. But what many politicos misunderstand is that Farage acts as a sort of meme within the TikTok community and amongst the young. While there is obviously a hatred for him, there are actually many that enjoy his content due to his work for ‘Cameo’ in which he got paid by, mostly young people, to read out memes or slang which he evidently didn’t understand.
The pure hilarity of paying Nigel Farage (supposedly a serious political leader) a fiver to read out the words ‘big chungus’, and the fact that he played along with it, only added to his pseudo-idiocy that was objectively funny. Many of these videos blew up on TikTok, and thus elevated his platform. I’d wager his memetic quality had as much of an influence on his TikTok fame than his appearances on Im A Celeb. The other factor driving Farage’s TikTok performance is that the average Reform voter (from early evidence) is highly engaged – much more so than most of the younger voters on the platform. It's why, for instance, Reform is likely being oversampled in polling – though this is only a working hypothesis. The other possibility is that their following is fuelled by bots which wouldn't be unlikely seeing as only 2% of over 65s use TikTok and that's where Reforms core support comes from.
But it isn’t just the parties and their way of capturing TikTok which is significant. Compared to previous social media, TikTok is an entirely different beast. The ‘For You’ page strips much of the follower necessity for success, rather judging each video in turn, allowing for a more strictly meritocratic video success system. Practically for the election this means more decentralisation in political communication, meaning that individuals can garner massive views. In short: you don't need to be big to achieve large views or go viral. With the TikTok creator base comparatively young to the population, and therefore more likely to hold left-leaning beliefs, this can create a self-fulfilling situation, boosting parties on the left. This a blessing and a curse for Labour: boosting the young's politicisation but also support for insurgent left forces, such as the Greens (ever more prevalent due to the divisive conflict in Gaza splitting the young).
The core significance, however, in the first few weeks is that Labour’s attack lines have dominated TikTok (and thus lots of the organic side of social media as well as the few political conversations the young will have), while Reform’s TikTok presence continues to promote its overly-online vibe around its party.
What does this all mean?
Tentatively, one can say TikTok will continue to influence the campaign. There will likely be another set piece event which someone will capitalise on through the use of TikTok’s trend-setting ability, and my money would be on Labour or Farage – who both seem to ‘get’ what works on TikTok much better than the very stale Conservative feed.
But TikTok could have a sinister impact. Its ability to transform a post into a social-media dominating trend within hours, poses the danger of an AI-deepfake spreading across TikTok and onto other platforms, which could fatally destabilise anyone’s campaign for days. With the Russian and Chinese states (who owns TikTok) deciding to meddle in the election, TikTok is likely the most efficient method for interference, especially with their use of bots.
However, the largest influence TikTok could have is in voter mobilisation. Think back to my argument about how TikTok dominates many young people’s feeds as if it was their daily newspaper 100 years ago. If a party, somehow, creates an explosive trend or meme linked to getting out the vote for younger people its impact could be much larger than those already predicted. Labour’s utilisation of Snapchat Stories in 2017 was just the beginning of targeting young voters – and the beauty of TikTok is that its memetic quality allows posts to explode naturally, without spending money to advertise.
Overall, TikTok’s political influence is undeniable. For those under 30, it dominates what one sees on their feeds or talks about in social scenarios. It thus has an incredibly targeted and potent effect on the young. What's more, this election is only the first with the platform – future elections will be dominated further by the platform as those under 18 use it much more. For once, it might not be the Sun Wot won it, but TikTok.
Tom Egerton is a political writer and researcher, his upcoming book ‘The Conservative Effect 2010-24: 14 Wasted Years?’ is out on 27 June 2024, published by CUP and co-edited with Anthony Seldon. Follow him on X / Twitter here.
