Local Elections 2022 - Quickfire Preview
Streamlined context and predictions ahead of tomorrow's elections
Tomorrow, (May 5th), a certain percentage of the UK will vote in what could be a pivotal set of elections for Johnson’s future. Bad to catastrophic losses could lead to his removal by Tory MPs, as argued in previous state of plays: #2 and #4. The Political Inquiry (TPI) will endeavour to offer context in a short summary, as well as offer resources to track and understand the results.
Remember:
— Only around a third of English councils are up for election (rotational elections)
— All / Most of London, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland are up for election
While national polls may suggest an imminent Labour victory may seem inevitable, it certainly isn’t. Most seats up for election were last elected in 2018 — a year of surprising Labour strength as May struggled to complete Brexit and Corbyn remained untainted by the incoming anti-semitism row and controversial 2019 manifesto.
Therefore, despite all the Tory briefing of up to 800 or 500 Tory losses, the likelihood of a measurably worse Conservative performance than 2018 is minimal, but not impossible. Labour is defending over 50% of all seats, and even with it’s current polling lead will do well to make any serious gains. Ukraine, the cost of living crisis and partygate will be the main national issues effecting local voting intention. But remember: local issues can override national ones.
The Political Inquiries predictions of what ‘good’ and ‘bad’ nights look like for Labour and the Tories are as follows:
Tory (Net Gains / Losses)
Catastrophic: -300 or more
Very bad: -200
Bad: -100
Ok/ Meh: -50
Good: 0 (No Change)
Very Good: +50
Miracle: +100
Labour (Net Gains / Losses)
Catastrophic: -150
Very Bad: -100
Bad: -50
Ok/ Meh: 0 (No Change)
Good: +100
Very Good: +250
Miracle: +400 or more
The Lib Dems had a good year in 2018, however without Brexit blocking their charge into Tory heartlands, they may look to pick up seats and possibly some councils — however this again will be difficult without complete collapses in the Tory vote and wild swings in what is termed ‘Blue wall’ seats. However, keep track on this.
In Scotland, Labour seem to be beginning a resurgence under Anas Sarwar and will look to gain Tory / SNP seats. In Wales, Labour would do well to repeat their brilliant 2018 performance, and continued Welsh dominance (as seen last year), expect little change here. In Northern Ireland (NI), we could see the first Sinn Fein victory, with the DUP struggling and the Alliance party’s insurgency, possibly challenging for second place if it has a great night. A Sinn Fein win would be a dramatic result and push the question of a united Ireland once again to the forefront of NI politics (if it ever left it). Watch this space.
TPI will be publishing full analysis of the results in the coming week, but for further in-depth previews we recommend reading / listening to some of the following sources:
Fisher’s overall prediction (Oxford Professor — Usually very accurate): here
The best in-depth council-by-council preview: here
Brief NS State of the Nation preview: here
Sam Freedman’s brilliant substack and preview: here
Rest Is Politics Podcast preview: here
Times Red Box Podcast preview: here
For tracking results and data, TPI recommends:
Election Maps UK, Britain Elects and the NS’ State of The Nation