North Shropshire - An Electoral Analysis
Explanations and Conclusions
In the early hours of the 17th December, 2021, the political class learned of another successive shock to the already volatile political system. The Tory party lost the by-election in North Shropshire to the Liberal Democrats. The seat was held by the Conservatives for 200 years, and was their 75th safest seat. This analysis will explore the factors surrounding this result, and where the parties stand.
The evaporation of a 22,949 is large, but not abnormal for by-elections set in perspective of an 11-year term in office for a ruling party (Conservatives). The swing is impressive, standing at 34.1% - the third largest in by-election history. What is remarkable, is the Liberal Democrats ability to both destroy the numerical Tory majority, while also accumulating enough votes to impose a new majority on top. Chesham and Amersham (Last Lib-Tory Marginal), destroyed a majority of 16,000 while creating their own majority of 8,000.
The same has occurred in North Shropshire, with the larger majority overcome, and a new 6,000 majority installed. The new majorities indicate that these gains are outside the margin of unpredictability (under 500 vote margin). Thus, conclusions and analysis can be drawn, due to the scale of such true-blue voting behaviour turning yellow. Although, within the constraints of the by-election caveat, this result doesn’t predict the future of electoral politics.
A glaring conclusion is evidently the Liberal Democrat’s efficient by-election machine. Since the fall of the Lib Dems in 2015, morale in the frontline troops of party activists has been low. The decision to switch funds from ground to air war by Nick Clegg, and the high command, in 2010 destroyed the foundations of the LD ground game. Canvassing, paper media (party political mock newspapers), leaflets and letters were all reduced. Key electoral data that built the Lib Dem’s record 62 seats in 2005 was left to rot. Clegg desired a presidential-style campaign, more alike to the Tory party, where ‘air war’ (Media) is paramount. The loss of 5 seats, even after a 1% increase in the national vote in 2010, explained the follies of this strategy for the third largest party in first past the post.
The election of Leader Ed Davey, and President Mark Pack, saw the hard reversion to the previous strategies of ground-game used by Ashdown and Kennedy. North Shropshire proves that even in non-favourable electoral conditions, the Liberal Democrat ground-game in by-elections is back to its old formidable self. In addition, the revival of equidistance theory (positioning the Lib Dems in-between Lab / Con on the left / right scale) has also enabled the Lib Dems to attract votes from disaffected voters on either side of the political spectrum.
The economics of New Labour mixed with social policy similar to Cameron, led by an experienced and trusted ex-minister in Davey, is a potent proposition to Safe Tory seats. Investing in the NHS, rejecting vaccine passports, opposing new planning regulations or countryside conservation. However, without changing on Brexit, it would have been impossible for the Lib Dems to win in the 60% leave voting seat of North Shropshire. This ‘new’ LD combination has proved lethal, again, in a “blue wall” safe tory seat. The degree to which the Lib Dem’s can replicate this in a general election, over a variety of swing seats with differing demographics is still unknown.
With the Liberal Democrats ascendent in their new strength, the juxtaposition to the Tories is blinding. The theory of an 11-year run in power leading to natural voter apathy, and thus defeat, is important to note. But it doesn’t alleviate the issue, if anything stamping the importance of the idea that this Tory brand is permanently weakened. However, the underlying reasons are more nuanced than a simple passing of time.
Sleaze is the icebreaker. As James Johnson argues, sleaze has broken the mirage of sensibility or party identification, triggering voters to re-evaluate their vote. By destroying a governments credibility, other issues of leadership or policy can be scrutinised. Normal voters don’t watch the news 24/7 or change their party vote often. The callous downing street parties, Owen Patterson votes and Dominic Cummings trip has enabled voters to engage and re-evaluate their preferences.
In the real-world, blabbering off sleaze is no longer funny after you’ve been caught. Whether voters have permanently attributed sleaze with the Johnson or the Tory brand is unknown. If Johnson’s brand has been hurt, his time left in office is short. The Tory party are notoriously ruthless in cutting off electorally damaged leaders. The attack lines of “one rule for them” were evidently a huge factor in North Shropshire. The question of sleaze and apathy will get worse before it gets better. North Shropshire has confirmed suspicions that the Tory brand needs desperate renewal.
A more dangerous threat, raised by Will Jennings, is the economic spectre of Inflation. The Bank of England has raised interest rates to 0.25% in reaction to the 5% levels of inflation. Economic instability is a much larger threat to the Tory voter coalition than simple sleaze allegations. Historically, the Leadership and Economic competency polls are the most accurate in predicting the next PM. The Prime Minister has lost his poll lead on the Pime Ministerial competency question, if he and the Tories were to lose their economic competency lead too, it would indicate a Labour victory in the next election.
The Tory coalition in blue wall seats is built on the ideas of low interest rates, low tax and low spend. Johnson has broken this on raising National Insurance and breaking the triple-lock, and now with inflation rising the signs are dire. Dismantling this small-government defence opens up the Tories to electoral catastrophe, and has clearly perturbed voters in North Shropshire. For Johnson, it also risks losing his party activists and support, possibly leading to a contested leadership before the next election.
The best way to analyse North Shropshire (and by-elections in general), is as a litmus test. It explains each Pary’s health and standing when tested on real-voters. However, these voters were a small sect of the country and had inflated resources/ attention invested into them. No solid conclusions should be ascertained. Instead, a sensible analysis of the parties, their strategies and leaders stand.
North Shropshire may influence the future, but it shouldn’t be used to predict it. Three years (until the next election) is a long time in Politics. One conclusion is certain, the Tory party must change if it desires to hold power.