Poll Pulse #3: Disparity in the MRPs
A weekly series focusing on the data and polls of the election
And so we edge one week closer to the election. This week has seen a flurry of MRP polls, with many commentators waiting with baited breath to see whether the scale of the Reform vote looked likely to be a general shift across pollsters, or merely a YouGov anomaly. Ultimately, it has felt like neither. The YouGov poll was on the upper end of the range, but this doesn’t mean that the results are not significant. There is only really one pollster who appears to have shown any real extension beyond YouGov’s polling in Reform’s favour, gaining on Labour and rising to 24% but the reliability is HEAVILY limited, as it is Matt Goodwin’s (populist focused political sociologist turned actual populist) People Polling. The thing with polls is, sure we can look at the varying methodology and see if one group seems to choose a more representative sample, but beyond that, there are limitations in dictating the strength of one poll over another. Everyone is working on the assumption that polls should converge as we close in on the election, as the futurecasters and the nowcasters become the same. But, 2 weeks out, we are still seeing quite some distance.
Regardless of the variation in pollsters’ results, it appears a substantial Labour win is now beyond doubt, failing an astronomical mistake by the party. We are now at the point where this ominous result is shifting electoral tactics, with the Conservatives attempting to sure up their safest seats to prevent electoral annihilation. Sunak has been out visiting seats which, whilst new, were built from seats that the Conservatives have previously held over 60% of the vote share in each, and there have been credible reports of the Conservatives directly telling candidates that their support is going to be cut as to focus on more ‘winnable’ targets. Whether this will stem the bleeding we will have to wait and see, but pollsters do seem to be painting 3 different positions the Conservatives may find themselves in following the election.
1997
Somehow, based on these polls, the best case scenario for the Conservatives would be a situation which looked similar to the 1997 defeat. Logically this feels strange, as 1997 saw the Conservatives’ fall from a notional 343 to 165, while Blair’s Labour achieved a landslide victory, with the highest number of seats won by a single party in post-war British political history. Therefore to suggest that such a circumstance is the kindest possibility, especially considering the size of the 2019 majority is undoubtedly shocking. Yet, a slightly worse situation is currently the most favourable projection for the Conservatives which is provided by pollster More in Common. More in Common have the Conservatives on to hold just 155 seats, with Labour claiming a majority of 162, which is larger than the seat share of the Conservatives, similar to that of 1997. The most forgiving current prediction, therefore, would see the party fall to their worst ever seat share. To top this all off, whilst it may initially appear that More in Common is the most favourable of the polls towards the Conservatives, when closely regarding the data this isn't as much the case. As Luke Tryll, MiC Executive Director, says “only a small move away from them could see them reduced to 107 seats”. This puts their initially favourable predictions back in line with the masses.
Turn of the Century
As I just mentioned, the 100 seat mark area or thereabouts appears to be where the majority of pollsters seem to see the Conservatives these days. One such pollster is YouGov, who in their latest MRP have the party on 108 seats, vastly trailing Labour’s 425 seat haul. It also boasts huge returns for the Liberal Democrats, who would see 67 seats in the YouGov MRP. This area of Conservative seat share is also the space that the Ipsos MRP has it’s predictions. The strength of the methods chosen by Ipsos are very impressive. The Knowledge Panel which they use to form their analysis is of the highest quality - using random probability unclustered address-based sampling, while their teams provide access for digitally excluded households, therefore providing an excellent, unbiased sample of the public. Their findings, of Labour on 453, the Conservatives on 115 and the Lib Dems on 38 are therefore, in my eyes at least, a very reliable estimation. Notably, they have the SNP on only 15 seats, a projection which is decidedly different from Survation’s prediction of 37, but one that seems likely based on the Scottish public's relationship with the SNP record. They also have the Greens on 3 seats, with their belief that the Greens can capture North Herefordshire, a seat largely not believed a possibility by most of the establishment, alongside the publicly acknowledged target seat of Bristol Central.
No longer LOTO territory
Whilst it may seem the most likely case that the Conservatives find themselves floating around the 100 seat mark, some pollsters believe a more damaging future is a plausible reality. The results coming in from Savanta’s most recent MRP, cast a damning shadow on their prospects firmly placing the Conservative party in the annihilation zone similar to Canada 1993. Savanta, potentially incredulously, has Labour to gain 516 seats, with the Conservatives only managing 53 seats and the Liberal Democrats getting 50. Whilst this does not quite relegate the Conservatives to third biggest party status in the Commons, it certainly places them perilously close to it, and would see huge swathes of notable MPs lose their seats along the way. Shockingly, Savanta’s predictions do not sit quite as far in isolation as many Tories would hope, with Redfield and Wiltons most recent poll seeing Reform rises in line with the startling previous polls of YouGov, having Farage’s party now the 2nd biggest in terms of voting intention. It is important to remember that the pollsters who have seen these movements are nowcasters, which would expect to show a rise of the Conservatives by election time when accounting for turnout, and the action of Don’t Know voters. Despite this, the potential for an annihilation event is not merely a light joke but a real possibility.
Personals
Departing from party based politics, each week I am also endeavouring to try to show the best of any storytelling that can be made of the public feelings towards each leader. Much has been made of the potential for Farage to capture the right and lead the Conservative party, but recent polling is beginning to show that it is not quite as possible for Farage as he might want it to be. One YouGov poll from this week, excellently raised by Beyond the Topline, sampled the preference of Conservative voters between Starmer and Farage, which found:
Starmer: 30%
Farage: 43%
Not sure: 25%
As Beyond the Topline raises, this certainly suggests that the assumption of Farage sliding into the Conservative party is simply not a realistic proposition if you don’t want to lose swathes of the party. The ideological right is splintered, and to suggest that Farage can be the man to fix that seems unlikely. These questions seemed to be raised in part due to the complete failure in leadership of Sunak, who, almost hilariously, is now less trusted to tell the truth than Farage.
Conclusion
Overall, it appears we are left with a likely unassailable Labour lead, and a Conservative party seemingly doomed to crash to their worst ever electoral performance. The ideological right is far from a cohesive group, with increasingly conflicting social views which it may find impossible to ever reconcile. The Conservatives, an ever constant in British politics, may have to abandon the wide tent that they have always sought to offer.
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