State of Play #1: Last line of Defence

The political state of Play heading into 2022

Johnson enters 2022 embattled in a fight for his premiership. After almost two years of Covid, increasingly numerous scandals and an irritated party, the next few months for Johnson could be his last as PM.
 
Timeframe
Key dates signify Johnson’s final chances to restore stability and momentum out of a seemingly dire situation. The first dates being the two reports being published in January. The Sue Gray report on No.10 Parties and the Geidt report on Johnson’s alleged misleading of the source of money for his No.10 flat.

The intriguing element of these reports, and British politics (see Patterson or Mandleson) is that their content may be survivable. It’s expected some Civil Servants and advisors may be shuffled to ambassadorships or Lords positions. Johnson may have to pay a minimal fine/ penalty for flat renovations. But overall, the report’s contents will most likely be trivial.

The effect and government response are the important factors. After a Christmas which Tempered MPs anger and Lobby excitement, Johnson vitally needs to continue this calm. No news is good news. Even a 1–2-week news cycle centred around yet more No.10 scandals will derail No.10’s strategy of equilibrium. Government agenda (such as the infamous “crime week”) will be completely derailed, and Johnson will be left flailing in the Polls in comparison to a steady Labour leader.

Being derailed would be catastrophic for the government agenda ‘reset’, with the long-awaited Gove white paper on ‘Levelling up’. Johnson requires this relaunch (due Jan/ Feb) to set a new path for government momentum. His attempt in July 2021 failed miserably. This time, with the government’s supposed best delivery minister, Johnson may have a chance.

In February, the Bank of England will meet to discuss a possible interest rate hike. While this is out of Johnson’s control, without sufficient government strategy and response, the PM could seem helpless in the winds of a struggling economy.  The Tory voter coalition has been based on low interest rates, a change in this could prove lethal to electoral chances, and thus party standing.

April is most likely the next significant date, with planned NI tax raises (‘Social Levy’) being introduced. Energy prices are due to increase 50%, with further increases from April. If inflation is not transitory and/ or continues to increase, Spring could cause a serious cost of living crisis for a large minority. This would inevitably further damage the Johnson coalition, but more importantly trigger aggressive internal leadership questions.

All these dates are paramount in the run-up to, arguably, Johnson’s most important moment in 2022 - the May local elections. The current atmosphere is so dire around these elections, that even a mediocre to stable performance (small losses) may save Johnson. However, this will be determined on Johnson’s performancein the months and events listed above. If Johnson can install direction on government agenda, and see off Omicron (including restrictions) he may survive. A low bar, but one Johnson has failed to reach in previous months.

Final Thoughts
Obviously, if Johnson fails to limit May election loses, the Conservative party will eject their inefficient leader ruthlessly . This will be no shock, as Tory pragmatism will always coalesce on preservation of power. Johnson (in a long-term sense) has failed on strategy.

It’s pointless to mention the Opposition, as unless of an unexpected implosion, Starmer will continue his slow and steady strategy. Any premature announcing of policy or commitment prior to the next manifesto only limits LOTO’s strategy, regardless of the Labour ‘bordem’ among the Lobby/ Politicos.

Johnson’s saving factors of Covid constraining government and winning an 80-seat majority may become his ending ones. Failing to shake off Covid or restore a pandemic-weakened economy to health, will leave him vulnerable to a leadership challenge. Further ‘scandals’ or an inability to surpass each event listed with credibility and strength will end in Johnson’s demise by mid-2022.