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In this podcast, Tom, Kit and Dylan discuss the unpredictable nature of politics as we head into a political year dominated by elections. The conversation takes a broad sweep, exploring technological changes and ‘Anglosphere’ idea-sharing that could dramatically shift how electoral politics works in 2024, before looking at the two major elections in the UK / US and the possible electoral and geopolitical outcomes.
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Specific topics covered:
— What impact will AI Synthetic polling have on the electoral, governing and party system?
— How is cross-pollination of ‘Anglosphere’ democracies influencing our politics, particularly the 2024 elections?
— How likely is it that Donald Trump will win the Republican nomination, and then the presidency?
— What are the implications for the UK PM and the country’s security / foreign policy after a possible Trump victory?
— Will a Trump victory make the world generally more unpredictable?
— How will the big geopolitical forces / divisions / conflicts change in reaction to a Washington switch up?
Further Reading:
Dominic Cummings on AI Synthetic polling and Biden Vs Trump electoral models.
See gold-standard aggregator 538 for the latest horse-race polling on the Republican Primary
The Times on Australian influences from advisor David Nelson and Politico on Australian influences from strategy teams
The Bloomberg summary of a 2024 Trump victory, and the Wall St Journal’s video of Trump claiming he could end the Ukrainian war in ‘24hrs’
TPI Podcast #5: The Unpredictable 2024