State of Play #12: Return of the King?
Analysing Boris Johnson’s route back to Downing Street
A shadow haunts the court of Westminster. Gossip and rumour rife, is something really brewing? After many months absent from the throne his name still rings around the walls of SW1, the one name people cannot stop talking about: Boris Johnson.
While it’s enjoyable for gossip columns and journalists to muse about his comeback, no thought has been given to what a Johnson return looks like. In this piece TPI will illustrate his possible route back to No.10 – an image which triggers either absolute excitement or absolute despair, a polarising effect few politicians can conjure so efficiently. What are the machinations for redemption, and what is blocking the return of the king?
The Narrative
Narrative is how the Westminster bubble, and humans generally, simplify the endlessly complex world of politics and life: a simple story or explanation, purposefully skipping detail and nuance. Everyone attempting a comeback needs a strong narrative – to both explain why they failed the first time, and how bringing them back would be better. Narratives infect the political class like disease – specifically sections that feel mistreated or abused (see the FBPE movement or ERG faction). One only has to look at the 1920s ‘stabbed in the back’ narrative that was so significant in the destruction of the German political class and rise of Hitler. Do not underestimate the power of a compelling story.
Johnson’s comeback narrative has two key points:
1. I am a born winner, I have never lost an election and I delivered an 80 seat majority in 2019 (“my majority” as he says). With that majority, I got Brexit, Covid and Ukraine right.
2. I was betrayed in July 2022. Yes the odd gaffe was made (Partygate or Pincher) but it was bad advice from bad advisors – not me guv! The real enemies are Rishi Sunak, Sajid Javid, Michael Gove, Dominic Cummings and Dougie Smith (dark arts Tory fixer) who all brought me down through leaks, plots and resignations.
Johnson’s beginning of a comeback starts with this narrative. His attempted comeback in October 2022 when Liz Truss fell failed because his narrative was underdeveloped, and the bloody destruction of his government still horribly fresh in the memories of the party. Sunak was heir apparent and Johnson destined to fail.
More importantly, in October the first part of Johnson’s narrative seemed ludicrous. He had the worst poll ratings for a PM – rivalling Theresa May’s awful ones during her 2019 destruction, on top of a dire 2022 Local elections. What's different as 2023 politics ramps into gear again is that we have had two Prime Ministers since – and suddenly Johnson’s ‘awful’ ratings (-40s) do not look so remarkably bad, now comparing favourably with Truss’s (-70s), and almost equalling Sunak’s (-30s).
Why is this important? Because the Tories face electoral extinction and, if the ‘born winner’ Johnson suddenly has the best bad ratings, the accepted wisdom could switch to Johnson becoming the last lifeline to, if not victory in 2024, then to at least losing well. But what are the actual mechanics of the narrative kicking into gear and delivering a Johnson comeback?
The Mechanics
It’s important to note that, when we talk about the Tory party, what we really are referencing is the 150-200 Conservative MPs that would even countenance a Johnson return. When facing his confidence motion in 2022, Johnson retained 148 MPs (even after the Partygate and Owen Paterson scandals). Following the Chris Pincher scandal Johnson still claimed a core of 102 MPs willing to back him in his October 2022 comeback attempt – which as Stephen Bush stated was plausibly correct – although Johnson could not be sure of their vote in the fire of the Tory leadership contest. So Johnson pulled out, saving his remaining political capital for another day. But remember: there is still a good chunk of Johnson favorability in this group of 100-150 MPs.
As the Conservative party gets closer to the fire of electoral decimation, MPs minds will focus on alternatives. However, several underlying conditions must remain before comeback begins:
Sleaze must continue to create problems for Sunak’s government – Zahawi, Raab and others (possibly leaked by certain Johnson allies) are currently ensuring this. The economy must continue its recession – which by the IMF prediction is already happening. Labour must continue to hold a 15-20+ point lead in the polls, with the Tories remaining under 30%. If these three factors hold through the beginning of 2023 the pressure on Sunak will be immense.
By which time Nadine Dorries new book ‘The Political Assassination of Boris Johnson’ will be out, and every Johnson outrider will begin to back the gross misrepresentation of the ‘stabbed in the back myth’ – the narrative – so powerful it denied Sunak’s victory against Truss in the leadership contest of 2022.
MPs are human, and not as clever as you think. Emotionally overwhelmed (rightly so looking at the mess) and unable to plot a rational route out of the impending destruction of their careers, the double-edged Johnson narrative of ‘a winner unfairly backstabbed’ will become more and more ‘rational’ in the warped logic of the Westminster bubble. Just look at the strange David Miliband leadership attempt at the height of Labour’s death in 2009 against Gordon Brown (Andrew Rawnsley, End of the Party, 2010).
What we mean by winner is really ‘losing well’ or a ‘uniting the base’ vote strategy: Johnson’s undeniable electoral strength. Polling data (graph 3) has undeniably shown his ability, even after everything he’s done, to still retain a cult of popularity in many seats. He is electorally more adept than Sunak’s awkward, wealthy, Miliband-esque vibe. Uniting the Tory base could be the foundation of a mini-comeback and is largely what we are referencing, and what Tory MPs are thinking, when we say ‘winner’. No one serious thinks Johnson could win an outright majority in 2024 – but denying Labour a majority could in itself be counted a win…
If the dire conditions remain, action will be taken:
The first stage of the Johnson comeback will be when / if Sunak dips below that key -40 favourability mark, matching Johnson (see graph 1 above). Numbers and polls are hugely significant in shaping how MPs and parties think – imbuing a groupthink that they cannot escape because ‘the data says so’. The point will not be the poll itself but Sunak’s unfavourable comparison to Johnson – triggering a shift in the narrative. When a political feeling of decline combines with polling data it can snowball into an uncontrollable force, nihilistic in nature.
The second step: Johnson continues to rebuild his image and his internal party allies. Lord Cruddas and Priti Patel continue to build the ‘Conservative Democratic Organisation’ (CDO) – essentially an internal party faction of members who want to bring back Johnson. Comparable to Momentum in Labour, if organised well could take hold of local constituency parties and control a large section of members and Tory MPs.
Third, some in the Conservative media will need to buy into this comeback narrative – or agree to not actively kill it off. The Telegraph and The Daily Mail would be Johnson’s most useful vehicles. Chris Evans and Ted Verity, editors of both papers respectively, still remain aligned and friendly with Johnson. Murdoch's influence on The Times and Sunday Times may be minimal, but he still controls The Sun, likes Johnson and is able to provide a platform for his revival. These legacy Tory papers are vital in the Westminster bubble where there is an unnatural level of media obsession. Their impact on the narrative, and its growth, is pivotal.
Fourth: the local elections in May 2023. Actual electoral events solidify the theoretical polling / Westminster narrative into a real decrease in power. If results are dire, this will likely be the moment of maximum opportunity for the Johnson camp to strike. If Johnson’s faction can create enough of a storm in the media, inflict pain in parliamentary rebellions (budgets, amendments etc), change the rules in the 1922 committee and generally heighten their narrative among Tory MPs, then a confidence vote could be triggered.
Katy Balls’ quote of a Tory MP sums up the way the narrative turns into a comeback perfectly:
“There is not an appetite now, but 2019 [majority] is uniquely Boris’s coalition – if [local] election results are poor, it could focus minds. It would be totally wild, but we have had wild times for years.”
Winning a confidence vote may prove incredibly difficult – needing around 170 MPs – but if Johnson has constructed his CDO to pressure MPs, squared off the important right-wing media outlets and sufficiently proven Sunak’s weakness, 170 is not impossible.
The Blockades
Irrespective of Johnson’s failures in office (see SOP#7), which weakens any form of a comeback, there remains several other external blockades.
The first key block will be the Covid Inquiry. Expected to begin in a few months, this inquiry, while longterm, could be key to damaging the legacy of the Johnson government. Remember: the foundation of the narrative’s first part is Johnson ‘getting the big calls right’ on Covid and delivering the vaccine. If this part is destroyed his narrative, and therefore comeback, becomes weaker.
The second is the Privileges Committee Inquiry into whether Johnson misled parliament over Partygate. Arguably the most dangerous block for Johnson, a bad result in this – which is likely given the quantity of evidence and the leadership of Harriet Harman, will lead to a suspension or penalty. If Johnson escapes without penalty, not impossible, a large block is lifted off the possibility of a comeback. But this is not likely – the evidence is rumoured, again, to be substantially against Johnson.
The third is simply Sunak and the UK – do not bet against them yet. Sunak will not win the 2024 election, but this does not mean his government will fall before 2024. Sunak could still get a landmark deal on Northern Ireland in time for the 25th anniversary of the Good Friday Agreement, the winter / bed crisis in the NHS should subside (at least until next winter) and inflation should decline, meaning less strike action and stable prices.
Sunak’s faction totals around 200 MPs – the size of payroll government members. He controls four ex-chief whips in his cabinet who all control their own smaller factions ( e.g., Mark Harper with the CRG). He is ideologically balanced in government with the ‘right’ like Suella Braverman and Steve Baker (ERG) and the ‘left’ with Jeremy Hunt and Tom Tugendhat (One Nation Group). Sunak even has the party’s strongest backroom fixers and dark artists on his side: particularly Dougie Smith and even Vote Leave’s Lee Cain. Naturally, his government is strengthened by having all wings of the party locked in government. However, Sunak’s greatest strength could also be a weakness. If the economy doesn’t recover, reforms fail and the Tories remain dead in the polls, these factions could be picked off one by one by those trying to bring Sunak down — Johnson.
Overall, these three blockades, in some combination, should suppress a Johnson comeback. But take this as a warning: a narrative can spread like wildfire in Tory MPs and Westminster circles — especially in these arid conditions. The return of the king could be nigh. It may never happen, but don’t be too surprised if it does — there is, somehow, a route to redemption.
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