State of Play #2: The Sharks Circle
Analysis of the factions of the Tory party and what their next moves might be
This article was written pre-Sue Gray on 30th of January and published on the 31st January 2022.
A government’s power in UK politics is synonymous with controlling its MPs. With a large majority and strong parliamentary control, a PM is all powerful. Losing control of MPs and factions inevitably results in a Prime Minister’s demise. In this instalment of State of Play, we will focus on the factions driving the party’s — and the PM’s — future.
Concentrated Factions:
May’s Allies
As noted by Shipman, the May camp has not forgotten about the role played by Johnson in destroying her government. In the house, May now sits two rows back, in the infamous position that old party grandees hold. Watching. Waiting. Undoubtedly laughing at Johnson’s self-imposed woes. Although, it’s unclear how aggressive this faction has been in creating Johnson’s downfall, they have reasons to be vengeful. Some, (Shipman)1 believe May’s allies are currently submitting / have submitted letters of no confidence, in order to rile up other MPs of different conservative creeds to do the same.
What’s clear, is that May’s allies have the experience that other elements of the Conservative caucus lack. They will wait for the most painful moment to strike. Some argue this is post-Sue Gray. Others believe the end of the Police investigation may be more apt. If both deadlines pass, May’s faction will fall back to the key weapon used to remove May herself: Elections. As stated in this Journal in State of Play #1, the May local elections are the ominous, potentially impossible, challenge that Johnson must face.
Why? Because the Conservatives are hard-wired to power and victory. Thatcher and May were both ruthlessly executed after horrific local / EU elections2. The factions opposing Johnson will use the same tool, especially May’s.
May’s faction’s future: The Political Inquiry firmly believes this faction will hedge its force behind a Tory on the centre-right of the party, broadly becoming the anti-Johnson candidate. Jeremy Hunt is the likeliest beneficiary as a candidate of sensibility. Tom Tugendhat is also an option, being the first to announce his leadership challenge. Both broadly sit on the centre right, and are vying for classical one-nation conservatives and May’s allies. May won’t hesitate to strike when the opportunity presents itself.
One-Nation
Technically numbering 110 MPs, this centre/ centre-right grouping is certainly more likely to number in the 30-50 region. Setup by Damian Green (disgraced May Minister)3 and Nicholas Soames, this is the classic centre grouping of the Tory party, and the most long-term anti-Johnson section in the party. Johnson’s harsh Brexit and callous, anti-conservative behaviour is anathema to this section of MPs. Many were ardent remainers in the May and Cameron governments.
It’s debatable to what extent they overlap with the May grouping (Green being an old Oxford friend of May), possibly becoming a singular potent force. Regardless, this faction is itself still powerful — famously having several MPs suspended by Johnson in 2019 over preventing a no deal Brexit (including Churchill’s grandson Soames)4.
The One-Nation’s future: As stated, the Journal expects them to coalesce around a Hunt or a Tugendhat style candidate. Possibly even Rishi Sunak, if he sees an opportunity to tack to the left of the conservative party in an effort to counter a Right-wing insurgent. However, an in-depth analysis of leadership will be tackled more in an upcoming State of Play.
Expect May and the One-Nation team to coordinate a deadly takedown of Johnson, especially if the Right or Red Wall MPs fail.
The Right
The hard right of the party has become slightly more nuanced since the simplistic days of ‘Spartan’ ERG members. Two key factions occupy the Right, and are key in ousting the PM or electing a new leader.
Harper
In Cameron’s ex-chief whip, Coronavirus rebels have found an impressive leader in Mark Harper. This wing of the party is set on the priority of freedom. Evident in perusing policies such as, no masks, anti-restrictions, anti-vaccine mandates and anti-lockdowns. If Johnson continues with the removal of non-vaccinated NHS staff (controversial throughout the party and country), Harper could rally his MPs against Johnson for good. He’s done it before in the plan B covid-rules vote in December, when he rallied 100 MPs against Johnson (obviously not all in his faction)5 . Viewers of House of Cards will know how dangerous a former chief whip can be, especially in times of chaos…
Baker
The second faction of the right formulates around Steve Baker, the old ERG and ‘Spartan’ leader who arguably destroyed Theresa May’s premiership over her Brexit deal. His team of hardened rebels, in the right circumstances, are uncontrollable. Baker recently relaunched ‘Conservative Way Forward’ 6, essentially a Thatcherite think tank / grouping designed to promote neo-liberal politics. It’s widely believed it could be a vehicle for his leadership challenge.
Unsurprisingly, this faction is at odds with Johnson’s attempts at ‘levelling up’, green agenda and decision to raise taxes to their highest levels since 1951. The faction also has a history of anti-immigration (most coming from the ERG). It will become continually uncomfortable the longer Johnson remains with an interventionist style of economic policy. In the short-term it’s equally unpredictable.
The Right’s Future: Both elements of the right — economic (Baker) or freedom (Harper) — won’t hesitate in submitting letters. Like the May and the One Nation faction, the Right has significant overlap and could act together. Also like the May faction, these MPs understand the element of timing.
Baker operated a shadow whipping system in the 2017-2019, and is widely considered the most effective rebel leader — winning key concessions on the timing and shape of the 2016 EU referendum. Since 2020, Harper has proved himself in amassing MPs to his cause, and forcing the government to rely on Labour votes to pass legislation. The right poses a longer-term threat to Johnson, but will act if they see a clear opportunity of replacing Johnson with a more right-wing candidate.
This could be anyone from Baker himself, Harper himself, Rees-Mogg, Patel or possibly even Truss. Sunak is also not out of the question if he makes concessions on tax cuts. Speculation on this is difficult, so as previously stated this will be analysed more deeply in another State of Play.
Broader Groupings
Red Wall(ers)
The group of Red Wall MPs are the most volatile and inexperienced faction. Numerous reports in past weeks have illustrated their resentment at the PM. This is due the marginality of their seats won by Johnson, and his perceived failures in protecting them. This is illustrated through recent scandals and failures to ‘level up’ their seats. Some even being pressured by alleged blackmail over funding for their Red Wall seats7.
These MPs are first on the list of Labour targets, and have potentially a short-term parliamentary career. Thus, their eagerness to replace Johnson through various ‘pork-pie plots’8 . In essence, they have little to lose and much to gain. MPs such as Dehenna Davison or (formerly Tory) Chris Wakeford are at the heart of these attempts to submit letters, in order to save their seats.
Wakeford realised his career may be over in parliament, and jumped ship (to Labour) quickly. He’s expected to retain his Bury South seat as a result9.
Red Wall(ers) Future: Many believe that this vague grouping have already submitted letters, although have subsequently failed to trigger the 54 threshold of a confidence vote. Their inexperience and eagerness has blunted their potency. They are roughly 40 in strength, but not all have submitted letters. Whoever pitches a strong message of reliability and redistribution may win these votes in a leadership contest. However, it’s hard to measure how congruent this group votes and moves, with many having wide-ranging political dispositions; e.g. from Thatcherism to Red Toryism.
Sunak’s Allies
Sunak’s faction is a loose and small grouping, but with large baseline appeal. Sunak’s use of his supportive MPs to trigger a confidence vote could be key. As the heir-apparent he also has strong soft power among MPs wishing to latch onto a winner, thus securing themselves future promotion. Little can be said when this team will strike, but any major resignation will certainly be followed by letters. Remember: a confidence motion is secret-ballot, so Sunak could easily oust the PM without anyone knowing.
Truss’s Allies
The second main contender of the coming leadership election, Truss seems to be much more open to supporting Johnson. Most likely out of personal-strategy, as Johnson’s great carcass is a useful shield in absorbing a politically dangerous Spring of inflation and a cost-of-living crisis. This would help a Truss premiership the most, but Sunak would also benefit. Truss is seemingly the most Johnsonite candidate, and will try to capitalise on her Brexit credentials, and foreign policy at a time of the Ukrainian crisis. Expect this faction (similarly as loose and broad as Sunak’s) to wait and amass strength. Truss will strike, but probably less aggressively as others.
Other Factions to watch:
Gove, respected as the delivery minister of the last 12 years of Tory rule, is always key in the background machinations of the party. His expected white paper on Levelling up (if ever published) could be key to welding him to Red Wall MPs. Gove has respect but lacks the old base he once had after two successive failures at leadership. However, don’t underestimate his prospects. An effective minister is extremely powerful in an ineffective government.
Scottish MPs may also begin to flex their muscles. While only six strong, Alister Jack (Minister for Scotland) and his team’s positioning is key. The Scottish Holyrood Tories under Douglas Ross have already openly called for Johnson’s resignation10. If Jack’s Westminster faction follows suit, every Scottish MP / MSP will (in theory) unanimously want Johnson out. A strong message, and yet more pressure on the idea of a ‘United’ Kingdom. Letters from these MPs could push the threshold of the confidence vote.
Patel is said to have a coherent and supportive grouping in Parliament11. However, her clear failure to create a workable channel-migration policy has damaged her reputation on both left and right. Patel’s allies will undoubtedly play a part on the Right of the party. Whether she has the backing or initiative to first; sink Johnson, and then run on a Right-wing anti-immigration ticket, is harder to predict. The Journal thinks this is possible, but is better explored in a further article.
Conclusion
Concentrated Centre/ Centre Right: May and the One-Nation
Concentrated Right / Hard Right: Harper and Baker
Broader, more elusive, groupings: Red Wall, Sunak, Truss, Gove, Scottish and Patel.
In the coming weeks and debates, the concentrated groups are the key to Johnson’s survival, and subsequent leadership challenges. Each faction has power to pressure a confidence motion. However, only through uniting will they confirm it. If they do unite, Johnson will not only face a confidence vote, but will most likely lose it.
The concentrated groupings control most of the 160 MPs not on the ‘government payroll’. These MPs are called ‘Backbenchers’. Payroll MPs (Frontbenchers) are ministers, junior ministers, whips and various parliamentary secretaries. They number around 200 Tory MPs and have a natural disposition to supporting the government. However, within these numbers are allies of Sunak, Truss and other key players.
Therefore, a coordinated triggering from the concentrated factions of May, One-nation, Harper and Baker would put immense pressure on Johnson’s premiership. It would also invite Frontbenchers to abandon ship. This article hasn’t even accounted for the non-factional and more independent minded MPs that have already publicly submitted letters. The question of timing is possibly irrelevant. Johnson will likely face a challenge, either in the coming days/ weeks or when the police finish their investigation or after terrible May election results.
The real question is whether the concentrated and broader groupings in the Tory party successfully unite and destroy Johnson. Planning for the next leader has already begun, and each faction will want to ensure that by removing Johnson, they have an opportunity to replace him with a leader of their political disposition.
In the coming weeks and months, monitor these names/ factions, they are all paramount in what lies ahead. The Tory civil war is in full flow, and only time knows what it will spit out!
May performed so badly in the 2019 EU elections, that the Tories finished 5th with only 9% of the vote - https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2019/may/26/european-election-latest-results-2019-uk-england-scotland-wales-ni-eu-parliament
The 1990 Local elections effectively confirmed Thatcher’s downfall in popularity after the introduction of the poll tax. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1990_United_Kingdom_local_elections
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42434802
https://news.sky.com/story/tory-rebels-the-mps-who-were-sacked-or-resigned-over-no-deal-brexit-11804764
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-59659851
https://www.conservativewayforward.com/
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/william-wragg-boris-johnson-blackmail-b1997495.html
https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/pork-pie-plot-meaning-name-boris-johnson-putsch-explained-melton-mowbray-1410098
https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/19842594.douglas-ross-calls-boris-johnsons-resignation/
https://www.newstatesman.com/podcasts/new-statesman-podcast/2022/01/what-does-the-police-inquiry-into-partygate-mean-for-boris-johnson