State of Play #4: Westminster reignited

Developments in Tory party politics sets up an important month ahead

Was this a pivotal few weeks, or suprisingly uneventful? While the government plods on with no major resignations or fatal damage, it would be wrong to underestimate the heightened pressure Johnson’s administration now faces. Resignations, ‘sleaze’, tax-avoidance and law-breaking has reignited a thawed Westminster, but larger issues remain unsolved. The tectonic plates of power begin to slowly shift once again, but will much really change?

Both Guilty: Sunak and Johnson are fined for illegal parties

A sorry state of affairs…
The recent woes for the Tory party are both numerous and burdensome. Sunak encountered two weeks of hell: A painful spring budget, matched with the leak of his wife Akshata Murthy’s Putin-links and non-dom tax avoidance status, was finished off with the revelation of the chancellor’s ownership of a US green card for 19 months¹. Tax-avoidance, Russian links and poor economic policy. A tough two weeks for Sunak and Murthy.

Tory politics further soured with the conviction of the Tory MP Imran Ahmad Khan for sexually assaulting a 15-year-old boy². This triggered his resignation, and a tricky by-election will now commence in the Red Wall Wakefield seat that the Tories will struggle to hold. The loss of a ‘bell weather’ seat would pile considerable pressure on the idea that Johnson can ride out this spout of unpopularity and return a conservative majority in the upcoming general election.

Tory party heading for defeat in Wakefield By-election

Thirdly, Johnson and Sunak were fined for holding / attending parties during lockdown. The government is categorically lead by law-breakers in No.10 and No.11. The destruction of the once leading light Sunak, and Johnson’s continued plunge in approval ratings, pushes the administration into a crisis of credibility. The Justice minister Lord Wolfson susbequently struck the first explicit partygate resignation³. But why hasn’t the majority of the Tory party hit out hard?

Ukraine and a lack of successor still holds sway on Tory politics enough to stay Johnson’s end — whether out of genuine belief or excuse. However, the coming months and years could prove otherwise.

Into the heat
Speaker Lindsay Hoyle’s possible granting on votes on Johnson’s alleged misleading of parliament could be the most aggressive move from a speaker since Bercow’s granting of the Grieve amendment, which effectively took away the government’s power over parliamentary business during the Brexit crisis⁴. Hoyle, up until now, has been largely passive in his role — signifying a break with the open political interventions of his predecessor. However, the coming weeks will prove difficult for Hoyle to remain neutral when the leader of the Commons has broken the law.  

While Johnson should win any votes in parliament, the margin could be interesting — with possible abstentions making the vote close⁵. Some MPs may break cover due to the marginality of their seats, career ambitions or as a genuine moral stand. Although, even these numbers are mostly irrelevant. The serious consequence of forcing party gate to numerous votes is it requires debate, and debate requires defence.

The Tory strategy, so far, has been to downplay partygate, arguing the Ukrainian war is more significant, and thus removing a PM in such perilous times is wrong. This defence fails when partygate blocks parliamentary time which could have be used to debate Ukrainian matters, but also importantly brings partygate back to the forefront of political events. In addition, the standards committee may choose to investigate Johnson, individually as an MP — another route to possible suspension and thus resignation.

Hoyle will play a key role in partygate events

Forcing swathes of vulnerable Tory MPs to stand, defend and even vote for Johnson’s measly defence is dangerous for the party, but it has little choice. If the motions pass Johnson could face suspension from Parliament, and thus be forced to resign his seat and premiership. Alternatively, however, the very act of seeing Tory MPs defend law-breaking in the commons will gift Labour endless campaign material for the next election and destroy public trust. Therefore, the question for Tory MPs now turns to action and when.

Now or never?
The May local elections are just weeks away. Tory sources are already leaking worse-than-possible scenarios of up to 800 council seat loses⁶, a clear sign of expectation management to turn defeat into partial victory. As stated in a previous State of Play, poor local elections have sunk previous Tory PMs such as May and Thatcher. Tory MPs may move to depose Johnson if losses amount to over 500 seats.

However, Tory MPs have tricked themselves into a statis of security due to the events of Ukraine (and lack of suitable replacement), creating an effective shielding from reality. What many Tory MPs forget is the UK has history of replacing PMs in times of war, and benefiting from it — obvious examples being Llyod George and Winston Churchill, who resultantly helped win WW1 and WW2 respectively.

The reality is that the long-term prospects for this government and continued Tory power after 2024 looks dire. The most pressing issue is the possibility of more fines, with a wider targets throughout government, and over a larger timeframe (numerous lockdowns). Partygate has yet to be concluded, with Sue Gray’s report to be published and the probability of damning photographic evidence being leaked. Again, the Tory submarine tactics of ignoring partygate and using Ukraine as a shield looks inadequate in the context of constant damaging headlines of law-breaking. Now, while Johnson could ride out the short-term danger, in the longer term it’s difficult to square.

The serious issue facing British domestic politics is the cost-of-living crisis. Energy bills and basic food prices are exponentially increasing, with inflation possibly worsening as European supply chain disruption worsens due to the Ukrainian conflict. Sunak failed to meaningfully help in his Spring statement — with mere fuel duty cuts, threshold increases and a future 1p income tax cut in 2024⁷.

Johnson’s government has no plan to deal with families choosing food over heating / cooking, as poverty and inflation soars. Foodbanks are adapting their intakes for food that doesn’t require high amounts of energy to cook, as families can’t afford to pay for such high bills. A few fines and parties seem trivial in comparison to life and death, which is why its catastrophic for Johnson to be failing on a substantial economic issue.

If Tory MPs can ignore what they term the ‘superficial optics’ of partygate, they can’t ignore ever-increasing foodbanks and a slowdown of the economy due to reduced disposable income (and possibly recession). This is before accounting for the electoral impact of such economic policy, especially in lower-income Red Wall seats. The ‘High growth, High wage’⁸ economic dream seems more distant than ever. Governments with bad economies generally don’t get re-elected (Wilson, Brown, Heath etc), the same can be said for leaders that break the law (Nixon, Trump etc).

Tory Party heading for defeat at the next election, Source: Britain Elects

The Conservative party seems to be following down the path of the Republican party. Populism personified has electoral benefits but long-term dangers. The government may survive the coming weeks, but its actions and defence could hurt its longevity. Constant individually-caused crisis distracts the government from serious issues of the cost of living and Ukraine. It’s impossible to pretend that partygate doesn’t use No.10 resources to firefight internal rebellions, instead of actual serious policy. If Johnson continues to be careless, Starmer, like Biden, could easily walk into No.10 — not so much due to his prowess but the ineptitude of the government he faces. For the electorate, a steady hand is better than an erratic one. With Labour leading in the polls, a Starmer premiership is possible.

The Tory party must consider what’s best for both country and its own party. Put simplistically: Short-term gain or long-term pain?

1. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/what-is-green-card-rishi-sunak-b2054394.html

2. https://news.sky.com/story/imran-ahmad-khan-mp-resigns-after-being-found-guilty-of-sexually-assaulting-15-year-old-boy-12590192

3. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-parties-resign-wolfson-b2057439.html

4. https://policyexchange.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/The-risks-of-the-Grieve-Amendment.pdf

5. https://www.ft.com/content/d6c0bdf5-4d3b-4db0-8f57-3dd0aefecfa2

6. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/04/14/exclusive-tories-set-lose-800-council-seats-sir-keir-starmer/

7. https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/spring-statement-2022-documents

8. https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/oureconomy/boris-johnsons-vision-for-a-high-wage-economy-is-built-on-shaky-foundations/